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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Forecast text

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2024 Sep 14 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 14-Sep 16 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 14-Sep 16 2024

	Sep 14	Sep 15	Sep 16
00-03UT	4.67 (G1)	3.00	3.33
03-06UT	5.00 (G1)	2.33	3.33
06-09UT	5.00 (G1)	2.33	4.67 (G1)
09-12UT	5.67 (G2)	3.33	4.33
12-15UT	5.00 (G1)	3.33	3.67
15-18UT	4.33	3.33	3.00
18-21UT	4.00	3.00	3.00
21-00UT	4.33	3.00	3.00

Rationale: G1-2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely on 14 Sep due to ongoing and additional anticipated CME activity. Additional G1 (Minor) activity is likely on 16 Sep due to additional CME activity.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 14-Sep 16 2024

	Sep 14	Sep 15	Sep 16
S1 or greater	10%	10%	10%

Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event will persist through 16 Sep as multiple regions transit the western limb.

Radio Blackout Activity

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Sep 13 2024 0656 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 14-Sep 16 2024

	Sep 14	Sep 15	Sep 16
R1-R2	55%	55%	55%
R3 or greater	10%	10%	10%

Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on 14-16 Sep. R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts event probabilities remain likely through the period as multiple regions exist on the disk.

Sun Images

eit 171	eit 195	eit 284	eit 304


Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

SDO/HMI Continuum	SDO/HMI Magnetogram	LASCO C2	LASCO C3


The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The most prominent features are the sun spots.		LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.
for more information
Bigger versions of this page in a new window: New regular size page, New 1280×1024 window, and New 1600×1200 window.

Solar cycle

Sunspot numbers	F10.7CM Radio flux	AP


for more information
The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. Solar maximum in May, 2013.

Solar wind	Satellite impact	Xray flux


for more information	for more information	for more information
On the left: Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. Middle: The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment. Right: 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.

Auroral activity

Northern Auroral map	Southern Auroral map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

Introduction Movie

Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.

Also in Quicktime format: Large (269M) and Small ( 60M).

links

Space Weather links:

Losts of interesting information
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Solar wind
Forecast discussion
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images

Space Agencies:
European Space Agency (ESA)
Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS)
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Russian Space Agency

Credits:

Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).

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